The third quarter earnings report for Disney was not pretty. In many investors’ eyes, it raised more questions than answers. Chief Mouse Executive Bob Iger reported that the first half of 2009 looks to be just shy of 10% under last year’s booking pace. He also alarmed analysts by stating that his predictive view of the attendance market is “limited”.
Disney responded by rolling out a new “buy 4 days/nights, get 3 free” promotion. This is strong evidence of the weakness coming into 2009, and the theme park market will need to perform some heavy discounting in the new year to stay on par with last year.
Presumably area hotels must do the same to bring in their market share of tourist dollars. Vacation home rates will almost assuredly follow suit because staying in a home is an upgrade from the regular hotel stay, and that consumers may not be in the financial mood to take advantage of that upgraded experience. The dollar has also appreciated making foreign exchange rates less attractive for international travelers. Although air travel pricing has been sluggish to drop, gasoline pricing has been cooperative for the consumer lately. We suspect that regional drive-to traffic may need to replace lost international traffic in 2009 if Orlando vacation homes to rent are to keep pace with last year’s figures. In that light, vacation home marketers must do a better job of highlighting the advantages of a vacation home over a hotel stay and then delivering on that Orlando vacation promise.
